Expectancy Tables

View the available subjects below to see the specific cut scores on the SAT Suite of Assessments that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the score on the SAT Suite needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher.

AP Art History
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 700
80 630
70 590
60 550
50 520
40 490
30 450
20 410
10 410
Total N = 36,698

AP Biology
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1190
80 1130
70 1090
60 1060
50 1030
40 1000
30 970
20 930
10 870
Total N = 110,966

AP Calculus AB*
Math Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 700
80 660
70 620
60 600
50 570
40 550
30 520
20 490
10 450
Total N = 480,485
* Although AP Potential is no longer reported for Calculus BC, students with AP Potential for Calculus AB who perform well in courses leading to Calculus may consider taking Calculus BC. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation.

AP Chemistry
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1380
80 1300
70 1250
60 1200
50 1160
40 1120
30 1080
20 1030
10 950
Total N = 221,688

AP Computer Science A
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1390
80 1300
70 1230
60 1180
50 1130
40 1080
30 1020
20 960
10 860
Total N = 85,611

AP Computer Science Principles*
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1240
80 1160
70 1100
60 1060
50 1010
40 970
30 930
20 870
10 790
Total N = 45,640

AP English Language
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 620
80 590
70 560
60 550
50 530
40 510
30 490
20 470
10 430
Total N = 200,195

AP English Literature
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 580
80 550
70 520
60 500
50 490
40 470
30 450
20 420
10 390
Total N = 221,697

AP Environmental Science
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1260
80 1200
70 1150
60 1120
50 1080
40 1050
30 1020
20 970
10 910
Total N = 91,279

AP European History
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1290
80 1200
70 1140
60 1090
50 1050
40 1010
30 960
20 900
10 860
Total N = 97,535

AP Government & Politics: Comparative
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1300
80 1210
70 1150
60 1110
50 1060
40 1020
30 970
20 920
10 830
Total N = 13,325

AP Government & Politics: United States
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1340
80 1260
70 1210
60 1160
50 1120
40 1080
30 1030
20 980
10 900
Total N = 461,065

AP Human Geography
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1230
80 1150
70 1090
60 1050
50 1000
40 960
30 910
20 860
10 860
Total N = 76,080

AP Macroeconomics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1400
80 1310
70 1250
60 1200
50 1150
40 1110
30 1060
20 1000
10 910
Total N = 237,142

AP Microeconomics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1350
80 1260
70 1200
60 1150
50 1100
40 1060
30 1010
20 950
10 860
Total N = 134,359

AP Music Theory
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1370
80 1250
70 1170
60 1110
50 1050
40 990
30 920
20 860
10 860
Total N = 25,549

AP Physics 1*
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1420
80 1350
70 1300
60 1250
50 1220
40 1180
30 1140
20 1090
10 1010
Total N = 238,540
* Although AP Potential is not reported for Physics 2, students with AP Potential for Physics 1 who perform well in recommended prerequisite courses for Physics 2 may consider taking Physics 2. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation.

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1500
80 1390
70 1330
60 1270
50 1220
40 1170
30 1120
20 1050
10 950
Total N = 42,468

AP Physics C: Mechanics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1360
80 1280
70 1230
60 1180
50 1140
40 1100
30 1060
20 1000
10 920
Total N = 95,021

AP Psychology
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1230
80 1150
70 1090
60 1050
50 1010
40 970
30 920
20 870
10 860
Total N = 426,236

AP Seminar
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1120
80 1020
70 960
60 900
50 860
40 860
30 860
20 860
10 860
Total N = 45,919

AP Statistics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1330
80 1260
70 1210
60 1170
50 1140
40 1100
30 1060
20 1010
10 940
Total N = 342,715

AP U.S. History
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1260
80 1190
70 1140
60 1100
50 1060
40 1020
30 980
20 930
10 860
Total N = 640,108

AP World History: Modern
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1150
80 1080
70 1030
60 990
50 960
40 920
30 880
20 830
10 760
Total N = 60,955