Expectancy Tables
View the available subjects below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 2 or higher or a 3 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 2 or higher or a 3 or higher.
AP Art History |
||
---|---|---|
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 550 | 700 |
80 | 480 | 630 |
70 | 440 | 590 |
60 | 410 | 550 |
50 | 410 | 520 |
40 | 410 | 490 |
30 | 410 | 450 |
20 | 410 | 410 |
10 | 410 | 410 |
Total N = 36,698 |
AP Biology |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1020 | 1220 |
80 | 960 | 1170 |
70 | 920 | 1130 |
60 | 880 | 1100 |
50 | 860 | 1070 |
40 | 860 | 1040 |
30 | 860 | 1010 |
20 | 860 | 970 |
10 | 860 | 910 |
Total N = 343,360 |
AP Calculus AB* |
||
---|---|---|
Math Section Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 620 | 700 |
80 | 570 | 660 |
70 | 540 | 620 |
60 | 520 | 600 |
50 | 490 | 570 |
40 | 470 | 550 |
30 | 450 | 520 |
20 | 450 | 490 |
10 | 450 | 450 |
Total N = 480,485 | ||
* Although AP Potential is no longer reported for Calculus BC, students with AP Potential for Calculus AB who perform well in courses leading to Calculus may consider taking Calculus BC. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation. |
AP Chemistry |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1220 | 1380 |
80 | 1140 | 1300 |
70 | 1090 | 1250 |
60 | 1050 | 1200 |
50 | 1010 | 1160 |
40 | 970 | 1120 |
30 | 930 | 1080 |
20 | 870 | 1030 |
10 | 860 | 950 |
Total N = 221,688 |
AP Computer Science A |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1280 | 1390 |
80 | 1190 | 1300 |
70 | 1130 | 1230 |
60 | 1070 | 1180 |
50 | 1030 | 1130 |
40 | 980 | 1080 |
30 | 930 | 1020 |
20 | 870 | 960 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 85,611 |
AP Computer Science Principles* |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1020 | 1210 |
80 | 930 | 1120 |
70 | 870 | 1060 |
60 | 860 | 1020 |
50 | 860 | 970 |
40 | 860 | 930 |
30 | 860 | 880 |
20 | 860 | 860 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 102,407 |
AP English Language |
||
---|---|---|
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 520 | 620 |
80 | 480 | 590 |
70 | 450 | 570 |
60 | 430 | 550 |
50 | 420 | 530 |
40 | 410 | 520 |
30 | 410 | 500 |
20 | 410 | 480 |
10 | 410 | 440 |
Total N = 823,584 |
AP English Literature |
||
---|---|---|
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 560 | 670 |
80 | 520 | 640 |
70 | 500 | 620 |
60 | 480 | 600 |
50 | 460 | 590 |
40 | 440 | 570 |
30 | 420 | 550 |
20 | 410 | 530 |
10 | 410 | 500 |
Total N = 638,629 |
AP Environmental Science |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1140 | 1290 |
80 | 1080 | 1230 |
70 | 1030 | 1180 |
60 | 1000 | 1150 |
50 | 970 | 1110 |
40 | 940 | 1080 |
30 | 900 | 1040 |
20 | 860 | 1000 |
10 | 860 | 930 |
Total N = 240,839 |
AP European History |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1060 | 1290 |
80 | 970 | 1200 |
70 | 920 | 1140 |
60 | 880 | 1090 |
50 | 860 | 1050 |
40 | 860 | 1010 |
30 | 860 | 960 |
20 | 860 | 900 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 97,535 |
AP Government & Politics: Comparative |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1160 | 1350 |
80 | 1080 | 1250 |
70 | 1030 | 1190 |
60 | 980 | 1140 |
50 | 940 | 1100 |
40 | 900 | 1050 |
30 | 860 | 1000 |
20 | 860 | 940 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 36,346 |
AP Government & Politics: United States |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1150 | 1340 |
80 | 1080 | 1260 |
70 | 1040 | 1210 |
60 | 1000 | 1160 |
50 | 960 | 1120 |
40 | 930 | 1080 |
30 | 890 | 1030 |
20 | 860 | 980 |
10 | 860 | 900 |
Total N = 461,065 |
AP Human Geography |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1120 | 1230 |
80 | 1040 | 1150 |
70 | 990 | 1090 |
60 | 940 | 1050 |
50 | 900 | 1000 |
40 | 860 | 960 |
30 | 860 | 910 |
20 | 860 | 860 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 76,080 |
AP Macroeconomics |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1270 | 1400 |
80 | 1190 | 1310 |
70 | 1130 | 1250 |
60 | 1080 | 1200 |
50 | 1040 | 1150 |
40 | 1000 | 1110 |
30 | 950 | 1060 |
20 | 900 | 1000 |
10 | 860 | 910 |
Total N = 237,142 |
AP Microeconomics |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1220 | 1350 |
80 | 1140 | 1260 |
70 | 1080 | 1200 |
60 | 1040 | 1150 |
50 | 990 | 1100 |
40 | 950 | 1060 |
30 | 910 | 1010 |
20 | 860 | 950 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 134,359 |
AP Music Theory |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1120 | 1370 |
80 | 1010 | 1250 |
70 | 930 | 1170 |
60 | 870 | 1110 |
50 | 860 | 1050 |
40 | 860 | 990 |
30 | 860 | 920 |
20 | 860 | 860 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 25,549 |
AP Physics 1* |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1250 | 1420 |
80 | 1180 | 1350 |
70 | 1130 | 1300 |
60 | 1090 | 1250 |
50 | 1050 | 1220 |
40 | 1010 | 1180 |
30 | 970 | 1140 |
20 | 920 | 1090 |
10 | 860 | 1010 |
Total N = 238,540 | ||
* Although AP Potential is not reported for Physics 2, students with AP Potential for Physics 1 who perform well in recommended prerequisite courses for Physics 2 may consider taking Physics 2. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation. |
AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag. |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1320 | 1500 |
80 | 1220 | 1390 |
70 | 1150 | 1330 |
60 | 1090 | 1270 |
50 | 1040 | 1220 |
40 | 990 | 1170 |
30 | 930 | 1120 |
20 | 860 | 1050 |
10 | 860 | 950 |
Total N = 42,468 |
AP Physics C: Mechanics |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1240 | 1360 |
80 | 1160 | 1280 |
70 | 1110 | 1230 |
60 | 1060 | 1180 |
50 | 1020 | 1140 |
40 | 990 | 1100 |
30 | 940 | 1060 |
20 | 890 | 1000 |
10 | 860 | 920 |
Total N = 95,021 |
AP Psychology |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1120 | 1230 |
80 | 1050 | 1150 |
70 | 1000 | 1090 |
60 | 950 | 1050 |
50 | 920 | 1010 |
40 | 880 | 970 |
30 | 860 | 920 |
20 | 860 | 870 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 426,236 |
AP Seminar |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 860 | 1120 |
80 | 860 | 1020 |
70 | 860 | 960 |
60 | 860 | 900 |
50 | 860 | 860 |
40 | 860 | 860 |
30 | 860 | 860 |
20 | 860 | 860 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 45,919 |
AP Statistics |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1210 | 1330 |
80 | 1140 | 1260 |
70 | 1090 | 1210 |
60 | 1050 | 1170 |
50 | 1020 | 1140 |
40 | 980 | 1100 |
30 | 950 | 1060 |
20 | 900 | 1010 |
10 | 860 | 940 |
Total N = 342,715 |
AP U.S. History |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1110 | 1260 |
80 | 1040 | 1190 |
70 | 1000 | 1140 |
60 | 960 | 1100 |
50 | 930 | 1060 |
40 | 890 | 1020 |
30 | 860 | 980 |
20 | 860 | 930 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 640,108 |
AP World History: Modern |
||
---|---|---|
Total Score | ||
Probability (%) | ≥2 | ≥3 |
90 | 1000 | 1200 |
80 | 930 | 1120 |
70 | 890 | 1070 |
60 | 860 | 1040 |
50 | 860 | 1000 |
40 | 860 | 960 |
30 | 860 | 920 |
20 | 860 | 880 |
10 | 860 | 860 |
Total N = 232,331 |