Expectancy Tables

View the available subjects below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 2 or higher or a 3 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 2 or higher or a 3 or higher.

AP Art History
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 550 700
80 480 630
70 440 590
60 410 550
50 410 520
40 410 490
30 410 450
20 410 410
10 410 410
Total N = 36,698

AP Biology
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1020 1220
80 960 1170
70 920 1130
60 880 1100
50 860 1070
40 860 1040
30 860 1010
20 860 970
10 860 910
Total N = 343,360

AP Calculus AB*
Math Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 620 700
80 570 660
70 540 620
60 520 600
50 490 570
40 470 550
30 450 520
20 450 490
10 450 450
Total N = 480,485
* Although AP Potential is no longer reported for Calculus BC, students with AP Potential for Calculus AB who perform well in courses leading to Calculus may consider taking Calculus BC. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation.

AP Chemistry
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1220 1380
80 1140 1300
70 1090 1250
60 1050 1200
50 1010 1160
40 970 1120
30 930 1080
20 870 1030
10 860 950
Total N = 221,688

AP Computer Science A
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1280 1390
80 1190 1300
70 1130 1230
60 1070 1180
50 1030 1130
40 980 1080
30 930 1020
20 870 960
10 860 860
Total N = 85,611

AP Computer Science Principles*
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1020 1210
80 930 1120
70 870 1060
60 860 1020
50 860 970
40 860 930
30 860 880
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 102,407

AP English Language
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 520 620
80 480 590
70 450 570
60 430 550
50 420 530
40 410 520
30 410 500
20 410 480
10 410 440
Total N = 823,584

AP English Literature
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 560 670
80 520 640
70 500 620
60 480 600
50 460 590
40 440 570
30 420 550
20 410 530
10 410 500
Total N = 638,629

AP Environmental Science
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1140 1290
80 1080 1230
70 1030 1180
60 1000 1150
50 970 1110
40 940 1080
30 900 1040
20 860 1000
10 860 930
Total N = 240,839

AP European History
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1060 1290
80 970 1200
70 920 1140
60 880 1090
50 860 1050
40 860 1010
30 860 960
20 860 900
10 860 860
Total N = 97,535

AP Government & Politics: Comparative
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1160 1350
80 1080 1250
70 1030 1190
60 980 1140
50 940 1100
40 900 1050
30 860 1000
20 860 940
10 860 860
Total N = 36,346

AP Government & Politics: United States
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1150 1340
80 1080 1260
70 1040 1210
60 1000 1160
50 960 1120
40 930 1080
30 890 1030
20 860 980
10 860 900
Total N = 461,065

AP Human Geography
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1120 1230
80 1040 1150
70 990 1090
60 940 1050
50 900 1000
40 860 960
30 860 910
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 76,080

AP Macroeconomics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1270 1400
80 1190 1310
70 1130 1250
60 1080 1200
50 1040 1150
40 1000 1110
30 950 1060
20 900 1000
10 860 910
Total N = 237,142

AP Microeconomics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1220 1350
80 1140 1260
70 1080 1200
60 1040 1150
50 990 1100
40 950 1060
30 910 1010
20 860 950
10 860 860
Total N = 134,359

AP Music Theory
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1120 1370
80 1010 1250
70 930 1170
60 870 1110
50 860 1050
40 860 990
30 860 920
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 25,549

AP Physics 1*
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1250 1420
80 1180 1350
70 1130 1300
60 1090 1250
50 1050 1220
40 1010 1180
30 970 1140
20 920 1090
10 860 1010
Total N = 238,540
* Although AP Potential is not reported for Physics 2, students with AP Potential for Physics 1 who perform well in recommended prerequisite courses for Physics 2 may consider taking Physics 2. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation.

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1320 1500
80 1220 1390
70 1150 1330
60 1090 1270
50 1040 1220
40 990 1170
30 930 1120
20 860 1050
10 860 950
Total N = 42,468

AP Physics C: Mechanics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1240 1360
80 1160 1280
70 1110 1230
60 1060 1180
50 1020 1140
40 990 1100
30 940 1060
20 890 1000
10 860 920
Total N = 95,021

AP Psychology
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1120 1230
80 1050 1150
70 1000 1090
60 950 1050
50 920 1010
40 880 970
30 860 920
20 860 870
10 860 860
Total N = 426,236

AP Seminar
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 860 1120
80 860 1020
70 860 960
60 860 900
50 860 860
40 860 860
30 860 860
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 45,919

AP Statistics
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1210 1330
80 1140 1260
70 1090 1210
60 1050 1170
50 1020 1140
40 980 1100
30 950 1060
20 900 1010
10 860 940
Total N = 342,715

AP U.S. History
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1110 1260
80 1040 1190
70 1000 1140
60 960 1100
50 930 1060
40 890 1020
30 860 980
20 860 930
10 860 860
Total N = 640,108

AP World History: Modern
Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1000 1200
80 930 1120
70 890 1070
60 860 1040
50 860 1000
40 860 960
30 860 920
20 860 880
10 860 860
Total N = 232,331